Austin Home Sales Fall to Lowest Third-Quarter Level in a Decade

Prices hold steady near $435,000 even as transactions sink 8% from 2013; market stalls under high rates and locked-in owners.

The Austin housing market slowed again in the third quarter, with sales of existing homes falling to levels not seen since 2012. While final September tallies are still being collected, early counts show the region closed roughly 8,600 transactions in the July–September period, according to Austin Board of Realtors data. That is 3.4% fewer than a year earlier and about 8% below the same quarter in 2013.

At the same time, prices barely budged. The median home price held near $435,000, roughly unchanged from 2024 and nearly double the $220,000 level recorded in 2013.

A Quarter Out of Step With the Past Decade

The slowdown marks a striking reversal from the pandemic boom, when Austin’s housing market was among the hottest in the country. Sales peaked at 13,500 homes in Q3 2020 and remained elevated through 2021, when the region logged a record 45,175 annual closings.

Since then, activity has fallen sharply. Annual sales dropped nearly one-quarter between 2021 and 2023, and remain more than 30% below their pandemic highs. Yet the market is still well above its post-financial crisis trough: in 2010, only 4,764 homes sold in Q3.

Why Sales Are Down But Prices Aren’t

Economists point to several overlapping forces. Higher mortgage rates have kept many buyers on the sidelines, even as population growth and job gains sustain long-term demand. At the same time, homeowners who locked in 3% mortgages during the pandemic are reluctant to sell and take on a loan twice as expensive.

The result: supply is constrained, but so is demand. With neither side blinking, prices have held steady despite a clear decline in activity.

A 25-Year Perspective

Looking across two and a half decades of MLS records, Austin’s housing cycle has swung through distinct phases:

• 2000s Expansion: A steady climb until the 2008 downturn.

• 2010 Low: The weakest third quarter on record, with 4,764 sales.

• 2011–2019 Growth: Nearly uninterrupted expansion as Austin attracted new residents and employers.

• 2020–2021 Spike: The pandemic’s combination of remote work and cheap money propelled sales and prices to historic highs.

• 2022–2025 Reset: Activity cooled sharply, leaving today’s market closer to the levels seen in the early 2010s.

Buyers and Sellers at a Standoff

For would-be buyers, affordability remains the primary hurdle. Even with flat prices, the cost of financing a $435,000 home is significantly higher than it was five years ago. Sellers, meanwhile, are anchored by equity gains and locked-in mortgage rates, making them hesitant to discount.

“Austin today looks less like a bubble bursting than a market catching its breath,” said one local broker. “We’re well off the frenzy of 2020, but we’re also not falling apart.”

The Road Ahead

The final September data could nudge totals slightly higher, but the direction of travel is clear: Austin is entering a low-churn phase. Heading into the fourth quarter, much depends on interest rates. A decline could release some pent-up demand; stability at current levels could mean more of the same—flat prices, muted turnover, and selective opportunities for patient buyers.

For now, the region’s housing market illustrates a national theme: after years of dramatic swings, the story is not collapse but adjustment—an uneasy balance between demand cooled by affordability and supply restricted by locked-in homeowners.

Guidance for Sellers

1. Price to today, not to 2021. The buyers who remain are payment-sensitive and analytical. If you go “aspirational,” your listing will gather days on market and invite under-ask offers.

2. Win on condition and convenience. Homes that show turnkey and remove friction (pre-inspections, clear disclosures, and flexible closing) capture the limited pool of motivated buyers.

3. Be open to creative deal structures. Rate buydowns, strategic concessions, and timing flexibility can net you more than across-the-board price cuts.

Bottom line for sellers: In a low-churn market, the best-prepared listings still move. Get the fundamentals perfect and your days-to-contract can look surprisingly normal.

Guidance for Buyers

1. Don’t anchor to the frenzy years. Today’s market rewards patience and precision. You won’t be bidding against 15 offers—but you will need approval, a clean file, and a plan for rate risk.

2. Shop the payment, not just the price. With median around $435,000, the structure of your loan (points, buydowns, and seller credits) matters more than ever.

3. Focus on quality and time horizon. If you buy the right home and hold through a couple of rate cycles, Austin’s long-run fundamentals still favor owners.

Bottom line for buyers: If the home fits your life and the payment fits your plan, this market offers selective opportunities—especially on properties that have sat through a couple of price improvements.